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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a ability provided through current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.